Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
