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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japanese territory as China ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.